When developing my methods of deciding which games to bet on, I decided not to be arrogant and try to develop one on my own. So I started to do some research on some websites, just going to google and typeing in 'Sports Betting' or 'Sports Handicapping'. As you might expect, there are many resources, both good and bad, that are out there. Some are free, some you have to pay for. Most sites give you all the same information, just layed out differently. I didn' t find anything earth shattering but I did find a couple of sites that were of interest. One in particular that caught my eye was www.sportsinsights.com
This sight gives a little different spin on betting analysis. It gives statatistics taken from different online betting sights and gives percentage of who is betting what side. It's a very interesting dynamic. It also shows the opening line and a list of lines from different sportsbooks that are realtime. One other feature I like about the site is it shows how many bets are placed on the game. Obviously the bigger name teams are taking more bets. This is an interesting dynamic. Remember, Vegas and oddsmakers are in business, they want as many bets as possible, they are know which teams typically get more action than others. This effects the line of those games. This is a free site for some general analysis and charts, it does require you to setup a user name and password and asks for email. Advanced features can be purchased. One thing that I did do a long time ago, is setup a 'Dummy' email. I created it in Yahoo and made it something really obscure. When I sign up for anything that I know I don't want spam or other email from, or I don't trust the site to use my info elsewhere, I use this dummy email address. Just my preference. I will be giving other sites out, but this one was of 'outside of the box' from the other sites that I had seen.
The other thing I did was look on amazon.com to find if there were any books written on the subject. Suprisingly, there is. I created a 'wish list', since I didn't want to buy 50 books on the subject and then only read one and half books and the others be crap. So I decided on one that I thought would be the best for a starting point. Its called Investing In College Basketball' by Larry Siedel. I picked this one becuase I liked the Term 'Investing' instead of gambling and it dealt with College Basketball, which is one of my favorite sports, and it's getting really close to March Madness. I will confess that I go out to Vegas every year for the 1st round of the NCAA tournament, and will again this year. I recommend the book to those who are in a similar situation as me, not for gamblers who have their own 'methodology' on betting games. I give him credit for giving me the framework of what I am going to use for my own analysis. He is a very big believer in 'specializing', particularly in particular conference. I also like they way he integrates hard statistics (quantiative) and subjective stats (qualitative). He advocates free statistics off of web sites and putting them into a quote 'Database' for part of the analysis, then using notes from the games themselves (such as injuries, suspensions, foul trouble.. stuff that does not show up in the box score or hard stats) for each game. I do have a secret weapon, in that in my day job, I work with Databases, and getting the data from a website to a database, and manipulating the data is something that I enjoy and can get done quickly. One thing to be wary of is having to many statistics and taking to much time analyzing them. Only those statistics that can help you predict future game outcomes will be needed. In the next couple of blogs, I will detail some of the qualatative and quantative statistics that should be looked at.
I did win the Marquette \ Villanova game last night as Marquette comfortably covered the spread. Villanova jumped off to an early lead, but Marquette tied it at halftime, and used their advantage at the guard position to pull away. Tonite, the game that intrigues me the most is Michigan State Vs. Wisconsin. From the 'Sports Insights' website, this game is the most wagered on game as of right now, 83% of the wagers going for the badgers (** of note, this is the NUMBER of wagers, not the $$. So more money is likely going toward the Badgers, but probably not exactly 83%, as the $/ wager is not equal on every bet). The starting line was Badgers giving 1.0, now it is 1.5 in some books and as high as 2.5. I think this line is low as well, and would take it if I could get it at 1.5 and maybe buy the half point. I think Wisconsin is a good 12-15 points better then MSU on a neutral court. The home court advantage does mean points for MSU, as they are very good at home this year and in the past. I think the reason it is so low is that MSU needs the win more, just like last night with Villanova. MSU does not have a NCAA bid locked up, and Wisc does. Also, it could be a 'look ahead' game for Wisconsin because they play #1 OSU on Monday. The reason I like Wisconsin is I don't think they are looking ahead, they need this game to keep even with OSU for a shot at the Big 10 title, they also play MSU again the last game of the year, which at that point I could possibly see a letdown if Wisconson already has the Big 10 wrapped up. Wisconsin is a veteran team and Bo Ryan is a solid and stable coach, there is a reason why they only have lost 2 games this year. If all I am giving is 1.5 points, I'll take that bet. MSU will have to shoot the lights out and get some production from someone else than Drew Neitzel. I see Wisconsin getting up early, with MSU making good run and maybe even taking the lead in the second half, but Wisconsin will pull away at the end.
This sight gives a little different spin on betting analysis. It gives statatistics taken from different online betting sights and gives percentage of who is betting what side. It's a very interesting dynamic. It also shows the opening line and a list of lines from different sportsbooks that are realtime. One other feature I like about the site is it shows how many bets are placed on the game. Obviously the bigger name teams are taking more bets. This is an interesting dynamic. Remember, Vegas and oddsmakers are in business, they want as many bets as possible, they are know which teams typically get more action than others. This effects the line of those games. This is a free site for some general analysis and charts, it does require you to setup a user name and password and asks for email. Advanced features can be purchased. One thing that I did do a long time ago, is setup a 'Dummy' email. I created it in Yahoo and made it something really obscure. When I sign up for anything that I know I don't want spam or other email from, or I don't trust the site to use my info elsewhere, I use this dummy email address. Just my preference. I will be giving other sites out, but this one was of 'outside of the box' from the other sites that I had seen.
The other thing I did was look on amazon.com to find if there were any books written on the subject. Suprisingly, there is. I created a 'wish list', since I didn't want to buy 50 books on the subject and then only read one and half books and the others be crap. So I decided on one that I thought would be the best for a starting point. Its called Investing In College Basketball' by Larry Siedel. I picked this one becuase I liked the Term 'Investing' instead of gambling and it dealt with College Basketball, which is one of my favorite sports, and it's getting really close to March Madness. I will confess that I go out to Vegas every year for the 1st round of the NCAA tournament, and will again this year. I recommend the book to those who are in a similar situation as me, not for gamblers who have their own 'methodology' on betting games. I give him credit for giving me the framework of what I am going to use for my own analysis. He is a very big believer in 'specializing', particularly in particular conference. I also like they way he integrates hard statistics (quantiative) and subjective stats (qualitative). He advocates free statistics off of web sites and putting them into a quote 'Database' for part of the analysis, then using notes from the games themselves (such as injuries, suspensions, foul trouble.. stuff that does not show up in the box score or hard stats) for each game. I do have a secret weapon, in that in my day job, I work with Databases, and getting the data from a website to a database, and manipulating the data is something that I enjoy and can get done quickly. One thing to be wary of is having to many statistics and taking to much time analyzing them. Only those statistics that can help you predict future game outcomes will be needed. In the next couple of blogs, I will detail some of the qualatative and quantative statistics that should be looked at.
I did win the Marquette \ Villanova game last night as Marquette comfortably covered the spread. Villanova jumped off to an early lead, but Marquette tied it at halftime, and used their advantage at the guard position to pull away. Tonite, the game that intrigues me the most is Michigan State Vs. Wisconsin. From the 'Sports Insights' website, this game is the most wagered on game as of right now, 83% of the wagers going for the badgers (** of note, this is the NUMBER of wagers, not the $$. So more money is likely going toward the Badgers, but probably not exactly 83%, as the $/ wager is not equal on every bet). The starting line was Badgers giving 1.0, now it is 1.5 in some books and as high as 2.5. I think this line is low as well, and would take it if I could get it at 1.5 and maybe buy the half point. I think Wisconsin is a good 12-15 points better then MSU on a neutral court. The home court advantage does mean points for MSU, as they are very good at home this year and in the past. I think the reason it is so low is that MSU needs the win more, just like last night with Villanova. MSU does not have a NCAA bid locked up, and Wisc does. Also, it could be a 'look ahead' game for Wisconsin because they play #1 OSU on Monday. The reason I like Wisconsin is I don't think they are looking ahead, they need this game to keep even with OSU for a shot at the Big 10 title, they also play MSU again the last game of the year, which at that point I could possibly see a letdown if Wisconson already has the Big 10 wrapped up. Wisconsin is a veteran team and Bo Ryan is a solid and stable coach, there is a reason why they only have lost 2 games this year. If all I am giving is 1.5 points, I'll take that bet. MSU will have to shoot the lights out and get some production from someone else than Drew Neitzel. I see Wisconsin getting up early, with MSU making good run and maybe even taking the lead in the second half, but Wisconsin will pull away at the end.
1 comment:
Interesting to know.
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