Monday, February 19, 2007

Where to Begin

The first time I looked at a betting sheet, and looked at the numbers, I was perplexed but intrigued about how they came up with the numbers. I, like others, falsely thought that this was the way Vegas (or those who set the lines) predicted the ACTUAL outcome of the game. This as I soon found out was not the case. Vegas is trying the split the bet, meaning it wants to see equal bets on either side of the spread, in order for it to make money from the 10% or so they take for handling the bet. They try to match the gambling public's perception of the game, not the actual outcome. It is sometimes hard to differentiate between the two.

If you realize this, you then have to determine which game to bet on. Since we are getting close to March Madness, I will use college basketball as an example. There could be 50 games to bet on in a given day, all are from different conferences, all play at different venues. Teams are coming in with different momentum from previous losses and wins. Teams with different styles, different head coaches and different histories. Is Hofstra in a rebuilding year? Does Duke's star player still have an ankle injury, does it effect his jump shot? Does Cincy really think they have a shot at the tournament? There is so much data to analyze. What is more intimidating, is that you get the feeling that someone 'knows' this information, and you are just a sucker making a bet against Vegas, who knows ALL the information. The fact of the matter is, they might know ALL the information, but it is not all reflected in the line. What Vegas tries to do, is to have the line reflect what the general public knows and how much this knowledge will reflect the line. So in essence, your not competing against vegas, you competing against other gamblers. If you know more than the average gambler, then you have the advantage. Vegas doesn't care if you win, they care if for everytime you win, someone else loses.

My philosophy then comes down to this. Specialize. Because of the number of teams and the amount of data, both raw numbers (ie wins, losses, against the spread and straight up, field goal %...) and subjective factors (venue, momentum, injuries).. you need to specialize. Now, there are more and more types of bets, for example 1st half wagering, over\under.. I am sticking to full games against the spread. When I mean specialization, I mean picking a paticular group of teams to follow, the easiest way to to do this is pick a conference. In the example I am going to pick the MAC (Mid American Conference). There are three major reasons for this. 1.) Not a major conference. The games will still be on the board( meaning you can bet on them, some smaller conferences don't have games you can bet on a regular basis), but not a great deal of people see them on a regular basis. If I can be an expert on them, there is more of a chance that I will know more about it then say if I picked the Big Ten or ACC, where there games are covered and replayed on sportscenter everyday, plus injuries and other reported on a wide variety of medium, so that it levels the playing field. I want the playing field to be uneven with the advantage being in my favor 2.) They are small, but the conference plays to win. It is a competetive league, and most teams come into the year with a chance to compete in league play. I don't want a conference where some teams are not competetive on a nightly basis. It's tough to determine the outcome of games when one team is motivated and the other is not, or if the spread is 20.0+ points 3.) They are local to my area. I live in Ohio where 6 of the teams reside. I get plenty of information on the teams through local outlets. Plus, I can visit the arena's and get a feel for the home courts and what kind of advantage it brings.

In conclusion, when looking at the gambling lines, realize you are not betting against Vegas, you are betting against other gamblers. I am taking the stance of becoming an expert on one particular conference, that I will make my wagers on. I do this so I have an advantage on the general betting public. I also want to pick a conference that is competetive, will have their games on the board to bet, and have plenty of resources to use in my analysis.

Next Blog I will be detailing some of the resources that I have been putting together in order to start doing my analysis.

I will be periodically picking games at the end of the blog, at least one to start. Some MAC games, some not. At this point, I am doing this purely by looking at the lines and giving my best guess one who will cover, no analysis is being done other than using what I generally know about the teams as a fan and a quick glance at their ESPN home page. Tonite, I like Marquette -2.5 points against Villanova. This line is low to me, and I think it is because the perception is that Villanova needs the win against Marquette, where Marquette already has a tournament seed locked up. The reason I don't think it will play out like this is becuase Marquette has lost it's last 3 games and it needs to stop the slide tonite at HOME, because it has two more tough games at ND and Home to Pitt. Villanova has wone 4 of 5, but lost it's last game, and the four previous wins were against non ranked teams and 3 of the 4 at home. Perception is Villanove is going up and Marquette is going down. I am going against perception. I would look for a line at 2 or by the half point if I had the chance. I think it will be close.

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